fluctuación petrolera y el PIB:

IF 0.2 Q4 MANAGEMENT Revista ENIAC Pesquisa Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI:10.22567/rep.v12i1.879

Carlos Enrique Orihuela Romero, Giovanna Alejandra Cuesta Chavez, Bryan Steven Acaro Bustos, Israel Ladislao Cuesta

{"title":"fluctuación petrolera y el PIB:","authors":"Carlos Enrique Orihuela Romero, Giovanna Alejandra Cuesta Chavez, Bryan Steven Acaro Bustos, Israel Ladislao Cuesta","doi":"10.22567/rep.v12i1.879","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"La fluctuación petrolera tiene una incidencia significativa en la economía mundial, puesto que repercute sobre los ingresos que perciben los países exportadores e influye en los costos de producción de los países importadores. Los factores políticos, económicos, fenómenos naturales y bélicos provocan movimientos inesperados en el precio del crudo. Este trabajo establece la relación entre el precio del petróleo y el PIB de Ecuador con la finalidad de presentar evidencia de la dependencia petrolera del país. Se aplicó modelos de MCO y VAR para establecer la relación entre variables. Los resultados de la investigación determinaron que ante un shock positivo en el precio del petróleo el PIB incrementa en 2% y 3% en el corto plazo. \nMETADATA \n \n \n \nPeríodo \nPIB (Millones de USD) \nPrecio WTI petróleo (USD) \n \n \n1976 I \n2163 \n11,67 \n \n \n1976 II \n2207 \n11,89 \n \n \n1976 III \n2294 \n12,34 \n \n \n1976 IV \n2424 \n13,02 \n \n \n1977 I \n2598 \n13,91 \n \n \n1977 II \n2731 \n14,40 \n \n \n1977 III \n2821 \n14,46 \n \n \n1977 IV \n2870 \n14,11 \n \n \n1978 I \n2878 \n13,34 \n \n \n1978 II \n2921 \n13,52 \n \n \n1978 III \n3001 \n14,64 \n \n \n1978 IV \n3117 \n16,70 \n \n \n1979 I \n3270 \n19,72 \n \n \n1979 II \n3440 \n23,07 \n \n \n1979 III \n3627 \n26,76 \n \n \n1979 IV \n3832 \n30,78 \n \n \n1980 I \n4054 \n35,15 \n \n \n1980 II \n4308 \n38,02 \n \n \n1980 III \n4596 \n39,40 \n \n \n1980 IV \n4916 \n39,28 \n \n \n1981 I \n5269 \n37,66 \n \n \n1981 II \n5482 \n36,38 \n \n \n1981 III \n5557 \n35,44 \n \n \n1981 IV \n5492 \n34,84 \n \n \n1982 I \n5289 \n34,57 \n \n \n1982 II \n5084 \n34,09 \n \n \n1982 III \n4878 \n33,41 \n \n \n1982 IV \n4670 \n32,52 \n \n \n1983 I \n4461 \n31,43 \n \n \n1983 II \n4307 \n30,54 \n \n \n1983 III \n4209 \n29,86 \n \n \n1983 IV \n4167 \n29,38 \n \n \n1984 I \n4180 \n29,11 \n \n \n1984 II \n4204 \n29,11 \n \n \n1984 III \n4238 \n29,39 \n \n \n1984 IV \n4283 \n29,95 \n \n \n1985 I \n4339 \n30,78 \n \n \n1985 II \n4340 \n30,00 \n \n \n1985 III \n4286 \n27,59 \n \n \n1985 IV \n4176 \n23,56 \n \n \n1986 I \n4012 \n17,92 \n \n \n1986 II \n3872 \n14,51 \n \n \n1986 III \n3757 \n13,35 \n \n \n1986 IV \n3665 \n14,43 \n \n \n1987 I \n3598 \n17,75 \n \n \n1987 II \n3526 \n19,65 \n \n \n1987 III \n3449 \n20,14 \n \n \n1987 IV \n3366 \n19,21 \n \n \n1988 I \n3278 \n16,86 \n \n \n1988 II \n3236 \n15,57 \n \n \n1988 III \n3241 \n15,34 \n \n \n1988 IV \n3291 \n16,16 \n \n \n1989 I \n3387 \n18,03 \n \n \n1989 II \n3459 \n19,44 \n \n \n1989 III \n3507 \n20,38 \n \n \n1989 IV \n3531 \n20,85 \n \n \n1990 I \n3663 \n21,75 \n \n \n1990 II \n3752 \n17,77 \n \n \n1990 III \n3852 \n26,23 \n \n \n1990 IV \n2522 \n32,09 \n \n \n1991 I \n2663 \n21,95 \n \n \n1991 II \n2599 \n20,77 \n \n \n1991 III \n2785 \n21,65 \n \n \n1991 IV \n2730 \n21,77 \n \n \n1992 I \n2874 \n18,9 \n \n \n1992 II \n3007 \n21,22 \n \n \n1992 III \n2914 \n21,67 \n \n \n1992 IV \n3013 \n20,48 \n \n \n1993 I \n3278 \n19,85 \n \n \n1993 II \n3100 \n19,75 \n \n \n1993 III \n3039 \n17,81 \n \n \n1993 IV \n3331 \n16,37 \n \n \n1994 I \n3612 \n14,82 \n \n \n1994 II \n3744 \n17,83 \n \n \n1994 III \n3853 \n18,47 \n \n \n1994 IV \n3958 \n17,64 \n \n \n1995 I \n4170 \n18,38 \n \n \n1995 II \n4330 \n19,34 \n \n \n1995 III \n4422 \n17,87 \n \n \n1995 IV \n4413 \n18,13 \n \n \n1996 I \n4594 \n19,77 \n \n \n1996 II \n4521 \n21,71 \n \n \n1996 III \n4478 \n22,34 \n \n \n1996 IV \n4680 \n24,63 \n \n \n1997 I \n4783 \n22,81 \n \n \n1997 II \n4853 \n19,92 \n \n \n1997 III \n4841 \n19,8 \n \n \n1997 IV \n4898 \n19,96 \n \n \n1998 I \n4900 \n15,94 \n \n \n1998 II \n4954 \n14,64 \n \n \n1998 III \n5008 \n14,22 \n \n \n1998 IV \n5108 \n12,93 \n \n \n1999 I \n4915 \n13,17 \n \n \n1999 II \n4917 \n17,65 \n \n \n1999 III \n4799 \n21,69 \n \n \n1999 IV \n3899 \n24,64 \n \n \n2000 I \n3797 \n28,87 \n \n \n2000 II \n3376 \n28,92 \n \n \n2000 III \n2697 \n31,6 \n \n \n2000 IV \n5190 \n32,06 \n \n \n2001 I \n5904 \n28,76 \n \n \n2001 II \n6070 \n27,92 \n \n \n2001 III \n6160 \n26,7 \n \n \n2001 IV \n6335 \n20,47 \n \n \n2002 I \n6738 \n21,64 \n \n \n2002 II \n7087 \n26,27 \n \n \n2002 III \n7294 \n28,3 \n \n \n2002 IV \n7431 \n28,27 \n \n \n2003 I \n8011 \n34,04 \n \n \n2003 II \n7965 \n28,98 \n \n \n2003 III \n8120 \n30,22 \n \n \n2003 IV \n8336 \n31,18 \n \n \n2004 I \n8849 \n35,33 \n \n \n2004 II \n9042 \n38,31 \n \n \n2004 III \n9207 \n43,84 \n \n \n2004 IV \n9493 \n48,14 \n \n \n2005 I \n9858 \n49,9 \n \n \n2005 II \n10221 \n53,11 \n \n \n2005 III \n10646 \n63,31 \n \n \n2005 IV \n10782 \n59,99 \n \n \n2006 I \n11313 \n63,3 \n \n \n2006 II \n11727 \n70,46 \n \n \n2006 III \n11942 \n70,54 \n \n \n2006 IV \n11821 \n59,93 \n \n \n2007 I \n11972 \n58,08 \n \n \n2007 II \n12483 \n64,97 \n \n \n2007 III \n12923 \n75,22 \n \n \n2007 IV \n13630 \n90,58 \n \n \n2008 I \n14506 \n97,86 \n \n \n2008 II \n15789 \n123,77 \n \n \n2008 III \n16213 \n118,29 \n \n \n2008 IV \n15254 \n58,68 \n \n \n2009 I \n15022 \n43,14 \n \n \n2009 II \n15589 \n59,61 \n \n \n2009 III \n15780 \n68,08 \n \n \n2009 IV \n16129 \n76 \n \n \n2010 I \n16763 \n78,81 \n \n \n2010 II \n17071 \n77,82 \n \n \n2010 III \n17429 \n76,07 \n \n \n2010 IV \n18293 \n85,22 \n \n \n2011 I \n18923 \n94,07 \n \n \n2011 II \n19728 \n102,02 \n \n \n2011 III \n19968 \n89,49 \n \n \n2011 IV \n20657 \n94,09 \n \n \n2012 I \n21623 \n102,94 \n \n \n2012 II \n21909 \n93,29 \n \n \n2012 III \n22107 \n92,17 \n \n \n2012 IV \n22286 \n88,01 \n \n \n2013 I \n23020 \n94,33 \n \n \n2013 II \n23441 \n94,05 \n \n \n2013 III \n24239 \n105,83 \n \n \n2013 IV \n24430 \n97,5 \n \n \n2014 I \n24829 \n98,68 \n \n \n2014 II \n25541 \n103,35 \n \n \n2014 III \n25940 \n97,87 \n \n \n2014 IV \n25416 \n73,21 \n \n \n2015 I \n25053 \n48,48 \n \n \n2015 II \n25086 \n57,85 \n \n \n2015 III \n24780 \n46,55 \n \n \n2015 IV \n24372 \n41,94 \n \n \n2016 I \n24914 \n33,35 \n \n \n2016 II \n24926 \n45,46 \n \n \n2016 III \n24911 \n44,85 \n \n \n2016 IV \n25187 \n49,18 \n \n \n2017 I \n26000 \n51,64 \n \n \n2017 II \n25994 \n48,15 \n \n \n2017 III \n25961 \n48,16 \n \n \n2017 IV \n26341 \n55,27 \n \n \n2018 I \n26894 \n62,9 \n \n \n2018 II \n26768 \n68,07 \n \n \n2018 III \n27267 \n69,69 \n \n \n2018 IV \n27469 \n59,59 \n \n \n \n ","PeriodicalId":40421,"journal":{"name":"Revista ENIAC Pesquisa","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista ENIAC Pesquisa","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.22567/rep.v12i1.879","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}

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Abstract

La fluctuación petrolera tiene una incidencia significativa en la economía mundial, puesto que repercute sobre los ingresos que perciben los países exportadores e influye en los costos de producción de los países importadores. Los factores políticos, económicos, fenómenos naturales y bélicos provocan movimientos inesperados en el precio del crudo. Este trabajo establece la relación entre el precio del petróleo y el PIB de Ecuador con la finalidad de presentar evidencia de la dependencia petrolera del país. Se aplicó modelos de MCO y VAR para establecer la relación entre variables. Los resultados de la investigación determinaron que ante un shock positivo en el precio del petróleo el PIB incrementa en 2% y 3% en el corto plazo. METADATA Período PIB (Millones de USD) Precio WTI petróleo (USD) 1976 I 2163 11,67 1976 II 2207 11,89 1976 III 2294 12,34 1976 IV 2424 13,02 1977 I 2598 13,91 1977 II 2731 14,40 1977 III 2821 14,46 1977 IV 2870 14,11 1978 I 2878 13,34 1978 II 2921 13,52 1978 III 3001 14,64 1978 IV 3117 16,70 1979 I 3270 19,72 1979 II 3440 23,07 1979 III 3627 26,76 1979 IV 3832 30,78 1980 I 4054 35,15 1980 II 4308 38,02 1980 III 4596 39,40 1980 IV 4916 39,28 1981 I 5269 37,66 1981 II 5482 36,38 1981 III 5557 35,44 1981 IV 5492 34,84 1982 I 5289 34,57 1982 II 5084 34,09 1982 III 4878 33,41 1982 IV 4670 32,52 1983 I 4461 31,43 1983 II 4307 30,54 1983 III 4209 29,86 1983 IV 4167 29,38 1984 I 4180 29,11 1984 II 4204 29,11 1984 III 4238 29,39 1984 IV 4283 29,95 1985 I 4339 30,78 1985 II 4340 30,00 1985 III 4286 27,59 1985 IV 4176 23,56 1986 I 4012 17,92 1986 II 3872 14,51 1986 III 3757 13,35 1986 IV 3665 14,43 1987 I 3598 17,75 1987 II 3526 19,65 1987 III 3449 20,14 1987 IV 3366 19,21 1988 I 3278 16,86 1988 II 3236 15,57 1988 III 3241 15,34 1988 IV 3291 16,16 1989 I 3387 18,03 1989 II 3459 19,44 1989 III 3507 20,38 1989 IV 3531 20,85 1990 I 3663 21,75 1990 II 3752 17,77 1990 III 3852 26,23 1990 IV 2522 32,09 1991 I 2663 21,95 1991 II 2599 20,77 1991 III 2785 21,65 1991 IV 2730 21,77 1992 I 2874 18,9 1992 II 3007 21,22 1992 III 2914 21,67 1992 IV 3013 20,48 1993 I 3278 19,85 1993 II 3100 19,75 1993 III 3039 17,81 1993 IV 3331 16,37 1994 I 3612 14,82 1994 II 3744 17,83 1994 III 3853 18,47 1994 IV 3958 17,64 1995 I 4170 18,38 1995 II 4330 19,34 1995 III 4422 17,87 1995 IV 4413 18,13 1996 I 4594 19,77 1996 II 4521 21,71 1996 III 4478 22,34 1996 IV 4680 24,63 1997 I 4783 22,81 1997 II 4853 19,92 1997 III 4841 19,8 1997 IV 4898 19,96 1998 I 4900 15,94 1998 II 4954 14,64 1998 III 5008 14,22 1998 IV 5108 12,93 1999 I 4915 13,17 1999 II 4917 17,65 1999 III 4799 21,69 1999 IV 3899 24,64 2000 I 3797 28,87 2000 II 3376 28,92 2000 III 2697 31,6 2000 IV 5190 32,06 2001 I 5904 28,76 2001 II 6070 27,92 2001 III 6160 26,7 2001 IV 6335 20,47 2002 I 6738 21,64 2002 II 7087 26,27 2002 III 7294 28,3 2002 IV 7431 28,27 2003 I 8011 34,04 2003 II 7965 28,98 2003 III 8120 30,22 2003 IV 8336 31,18 2004 I 8849 35,33 2004 II 9042 38,31 2004 III 9207 43,84 2004 IV 9493 48,14 2005 I 9858 49,9 2005 II 10221 53,11 2005 III 10646 63,31 2005 IV 10782 59,99 2006 I 11313 63,3 2006 II 11727 70,46 2006 III 11942 70,54 2006 IV 11821 59,93 2007 I 11972 58,08 2007 II 12483 64,97 2007 III 12923 75,22 2007 IV 13630 90,58 2008 I 14506 97,86 2008 II 15789 123,77 2008 III 16213 118,29 2008 IV 15254 58,68 2009 I 15022 43,14 2009 II 15589 59,61 2009 III 15780 68,08 2009 IV 16129 76 2010 I 16763 78,81 2010 II 17071 77,82 2010 III 17429 76,07 2010 IV 18293 85,22 2011 I 18923 94,07 2011 II 19728 102,02 2011 III 19968 89,49 2011 IV 20657 94,09 2012 I 21623 102,94 2012 II 21909 93,29 2012 III 22107 92,17 2012 IV 22286 88,01 2013 I 23020 94,33 2013 II 23441 94,05 2013 III 24239 105,83 2013 IV 24430 97,5 2014 I 24829 98,68 2014 II 25541 103,35 2014 III 25940 97,87 2014 IV 25416 73,21 2015 I 25053 48,48 2015 II 25086 57,85 2015 III 24780 46,55 2015 IV 24372 41,94 2016 I 24914 33,35 2016 II 24926 45,46 2016 III 24911 44,85 2016 IV 25187 49,18 2017 I 26000 51,64 2017 II 25994 48,15 2017 III 25961 48,16 2017 IV 26341 55,27 2018 I 26894 62,9 2018 II 26768 68,07 2018 III 27267 69,69 2018 IV 27469 59,59

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石油波动与国内生产总值：

石油波动对世界经济产生了重大影响，因为它影响到出口国的收入，并影响到进口国的生产成本。政治、经济、自然和战争因素导致原油价格出现意想不到的波动。这项工作建立了厄瓜多尔石油价格与国内生产总值之间的关系，目的是提供该国石油依赖的证据。应用MCO和VAR模型建立变量之间的关系。研究结果表明，面对石油价格的积极冲击，短期内国内生产总值将增长2%和3%。Metadata时期GDP（百万美元）WTI石油价格（美元）1976 I 2163 11.67 1976 II 2207 11.89 1976 III 2294 12.34 1976 IV 2424 13.02 1977 I 2598 13.91 1977 II 2731 14.40 1977 III 2821 14.46 1977 IV 2870 14.11 1978 I 2878 13.34 1978 II 2921 13.52 1978 III 3001 14.64 1978 IV 3117 16.70 1979 I 3270 19.72 1979 II 3440 23.07 1979 III 3627 26.76 1979 IV 3832 30.78 1980 I 4054 35.15 1980 II 4308 38.02 1980 III 4596 39.40 1980 IV 4916 39.28 1981 I5269 37.66 1981 II 5482 36.38 1981 III 5557 35.44 1981 IV 5492 34.84 1982 I 5289 34.57 1982 II 5084 34.09 1982 III 4878 33.41 1982 IV 4670 32.52 1983 I 4461 31.43 1983 II 4307 30.54 1983 III 4209 29.86 1983 IV 4167 29.38 1984 I 4180 29.11 1984 II 4204 29.11 1984 III 4238 29.39 1984 IV 4283 29.95 1985 I 4339 30.78 1985 II 4340 30.00 1985 III 4286 27.59 1985 IV 4176 23.56 1986 I 4012 17.92 1986 II 3872 14.51 1986 III 3757 13.35 1986 IV 3665 14.431987年I 3598 17.75 1987 II 3526 19.65 1987 III 3449 20.14 1987 IV 3366 19.21 1988 I 3278 16.86 1988 II 3236 15.57 1988 III 3241 15.34 1988 IV 3291 16.16 1989 I 3387 18.03 1989 II 3459 19.44 1989 III 3507 20.38 1989 IV 3531 20.85 1990 I 3663 21.75 1990 II 3752 17.77 1990 III 3852 26.23 1990 IV 2522 32.09 1991 I 2663 21.95 1991 II 2599 20.77 1991 III 2785 21.65 1991 IV 2730 21.77 1992 I 2874 18.9 1992 II 3007 21.22 1992 III 2914 21.67 1992 IV 301320.48 1993 I 3278 19.85 1993 II 3100 19.75 1993 III 3039 17.81 1993 IV 3331 16.37 1994 I 3612 14.82 1994 II 3744 17.83 1994 III 3853 18.47 1994 IV 3958 17.64 1995 I 4170 18.38 1995 II 4330 19.34 1995 III 4422 17.87 1995 IV 4413 18.13 1996 I 4594 19.77 1996 II 4521 21.71 1996 III 4478 22.34 1996 IV 4680 24.63 1997 I 4783 22.81 1997 II 4853 19.92 1997 III 4841 19.8 1997 IV 4898 19.96 1998 I 4900 15.8 94 1998 II 4954 14.64 1998 III 5008 14.22 1998 IV5108 12.93 1999 I 4915 13.17 1999 II 4917 17.65 1999 III 4799 21.69 1999 IV 3899 24.64 2000 I 3797 28.87 2000 II 3376 28.92 2000 III 2697 31.6 2000 IV 5190 32.06 2001 I 5904 28.76 2001 II 6070 27.92 2001 III 6160 26.7 2001 IV 6335 20.47 2002 I 6738 21.64 2002 II 7087 26.27 2002 III 7294 28.3 2002 IV 7431 28.27 2003 I 8011 34.04 2003 II 7965 28.98 2003 III 8120.22 2003 IV 8336 31.18 2004 I 8849 35.33 2004 II 9042 38.31 2004 III 9207 43.84 2004IV 9493 48.14 2005 I 9858 49.9 2005 II 10221 53.11 2005 III 10646 63.31 2005 IV 10782 59.99 2006 I 11313 63.3 2006 II 11727 70.46 2006 III 11942 70.54 2006 IV 11821 59.93 2007 I 11972 58.08 2007 II 12483 64.97 2007 III 12923 75.22 2007 IV 13630 90.58 2008 I 14506 97.86 2008 II 15789 123.77 2008 III 16213 118.29 2008 IV 15254 58.68 2009 I 15022 43.14 2009 II 15589.61 2009 III 15788.08 2009 IV 16129 76 2010 I 16763 78.81 2010 II 17071 77.82 2010III 17429 76.07 2010 IV 18293 85.22 2011 I 18923 94.07 2011 II 19728 102.02 2011 III 19968 89.49 2011 IV 20657 94.09 2012 I 21623 102.94 2012 II 21909 93.29 2012 III 22107 92.17 2012 IV 22286 88.01 2013 I 23020 94.33 2013 II 23441 94.05 2013 III 24239 105.83 2013 IV 24430 97.5 2014 I 24829 98.68 2014 II 25541 103.35 2014 III 25940 97.87 2014 IV 25416 73.21 2015 I 25053 48.35 48 2015 II 25086 57.85 2015 III 24780 46.55 2015 IV 24372 41.94 2016 I 2491433.35 2016 II 24926 45.46 2016 III 24911 44.85 2016 IV 25187 49.18 2017 I 26000 51.64 2017 II 25994 48.15 2017 III 25961 48.16 2017 IV 26341 55.27 2018 I 26894 62.9 2018 II 26768 68.07 2018 III 27267 69.69 2018 IV 27469 59.59

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