A system dynamics modelling for energy planning and carbon dioxide estimation of the Nigerian power sector

Abstract

Energy is essential to supporting the modern life-style; it is the main driver to economic development and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Due to associated complexities and uncertainties, decision makers and energy planners face increasing pressure to effectively address energy related challenges, including approaches to low carbon energy provision. This study seeks to develop a long-term, 2010-2050, system dynamics (SD) model of the Nigerian power sector (NPS). The model then helps to investigate ways to bridge the electricity supply and demand gaps by simulating various performance scenarios based on real socio-economic variables and estimation of CO2. A total of six policy scenarios were implemented. These scenarios sought to evaluate the influence of the following four parameters: 1) transmission losses (Tx); 2) time to adjust capacity (TAC); 3) population growth rate (PGR); 4) capacities under construction. Accordingly, results not only showed that the completion of the existing project and the Mambilla multipurpose hydropower (MMHP) would make the NPS 71% energy secured, but also revealed a paradigm shift in CO2 reduction in the planning process considered by the study in contrast to the existing generations. Finally, capability of SD was affirmed by properly capturing feedbacks, delays, and other complexities in the NPS.