A Fractional Order SITR Model for Forecasting of Transmission of COVID-19: Sensitivity Statistical Analysis

Abstract

In this work, we investigate the effects of the contact rate between people on the covid-19 virus transmission through a susceptible-infected-treatment-recovered (SITR) fractional mathematical model. Several strategies are introduced, and the development methodology is constructed up in various cases based on the rate of individual contact, due to confinement and social distancing rules, which can be useful in reducing infection. The existence and uniqueness of the proposed model solution are established, as well as the basic reproduction number. The basic reproduction number has been used to control the dynamics of the fractional SITR model completely, which determines whether or not the infection is extinguished. The global stability of the infection-free balance and endemic equilibrium point of the proposed model has been fully established using the Lyapunov-LaSalle type theorem. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to find out which parameter is the most dominant to affect the disease's endemicity and to see how changes in parameters affect Covid-19's beginning disease transmission. The fractional Adams-Bashforth method is used to compute an iterative solution to the model. Finally, using the model parameter values to explain the importance of the arbitrary fractional-order derivative, the numerical results using MATLAB are presented.