Bruno Jérôme, V. Jerome, Philippe Mongrain, R. Nadeau
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引用次数: 1
Abstract
Before the November 2022 midterms, we proposed a model to forecast the aggregate results of elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. This model rests on two well-established traditions, that of vote-popularity functions and that of “regionalized” pooled cross-sectional time-series models. The proposed House model is inspired by the State-by-State Political Economy (2SPE) Model previously applied to presidential elections, which is based on local and national data. In 2020, the 2SPE Model gave Joe Biden 51.69% of the two-party nationwide popular vote (a 0.6-point error) and correctly predicted the winner in forty-seven states plus the District of Columbia. The House model innovates by including presidential popularity data by state formidterm elections as well as variables tracing the trajectory of
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Since its inception in 1968, Polity has been committed to the publication of scholarship reflecting the full variety of approaches to the study of politics. As journals have become more specialized and less accessible to many within the discipline of political science, Polity has remained ecumenical. The editor and editorial board welcome articles intended to be of interest to an entire field (e.g., political theory or international politics) within political science, to the discipline as a whole, and to scholars in related disciplines in the social sciences and the humanities. Scholarship of this type promises to be highly "productive" - that is, to stimulate other scholars to ask fresh questions and reconsider conventional assumptions.
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