Quantitative Late Quaternary Climate Reconstruction from Plant Macrofossil Communities in Western North America

Abstract

The Late Quaternary packrat (Neotoma spp.) midden plant macrofossil record in western North America is an exceptional record of biotic change that provides strong evidence of past climate. In this study, we generate quantitative estimates of climate from plant community composition of more than 600 individual paleomiddens over the past 50,000 years. Here we present the first large-scale application of CRACLE (Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation), a quantitative climate inference method that uses plant community composition as a climate proxy under the individualistic concept of plant community assembly. The results are spatiotemporally specific estimates of temperature, precipitation, available moisture, and seasonal patterns that are consistent with well understood global climate patterns but provide previously unavailable detail and precision of the regional paleoclimate in western North America. Rapid warming is estimated at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, at a conservative estimate of ca. 1°C per millennium. Previously projected future temperature increases suggest a rate of increase of more than 2°C over the next century, an astonishing 10× the rate experienced at any point during the past 50,000 years in Western North America. These analyses form a baseline demonstration of how the growing paleoecological record of packrat midden plant macrofossils can provide quantitative estimates of paleoclimate that aid in understanding the complexities of, and biotic responses to the regional climate system. This work is the first synthetic application of any paleoclimate estimation method to packrat midden plant macrofossils.