{"title":"Predicting First Time Falls: Validating a Novel Algorithm in Long Term Care","authors":"A. Kuspinar, J. Hirdes, K. Berg, C. McArthur","doi":"10.1080/02703181.2021.1942391","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Aim To determine the predictive validity of the 1stFall algorithm in long-term care (LTC) residents across four Canadian provinces. Methods This retrospective cohort study included all clients admitted to LTC between 2006-2017 with no history of falls in the past 30 days. The outcome was occurrence of a fall and logistic regression analysis was performed to assess predictive validity. Results A total of 199,997 LTC residents were studied (71% were >80 years old, 66% women, and 17% had severe cognitive impairment). For the total sample, clients in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th risk categories had 1.15, 1.58, 2.66, and 3.76 times greater odds of falling than the 1st category, respectively. Similar trends were observed across provinces. Conclusions 1stFall was developed to predict the risk of a first-time fall event in individuals with no history of a recent fall. 1stFall identified LTC residents at risk of a first-time fall, supporting its use in routine care.","PeriodicalId":45387,"journal":{"name":"PHYSICAL & OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY IN GERIATRICS","volume":"39 1","pages":"409 - 420"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02703181.2021.1942391","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PHYSICAL & OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY IN GERIATRICS","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02703181.2021.1942391","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"REHABILITATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract Aim To determine the predictive validity of the 1stFall algorithm in long-term care (LTC) residents across four Canadian provinces. Methods This retrospective cohort study included all clients admitted to LTC between 2006-2017 with no history of falls in the past 30 days. The outcome was occurrence of a fall and logistic regression analysis was performed to assess predictive validity. Results A total of 199,997 LTC residents were studied (71% were >80 years old, 66% women, and 17% had severe cognitive impairment). For the total sample, clients in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th risk categories had 1.15, 1.58, 2.66, and 3.76 times greater odds of falling than the 1st category, respectively. Similar trends were observed across provinces. Conclusions 1stFall was developed to predict the risk of a first-time fall event in individuals with no history of a recent fall. 1stFall identified LTC residents at risk of a first-time fall, supporting its use in routine care.
期刊介绍：
This comprehensive journal is recognized for its useful balance of research and clinical practice articles. For more than twenty five years Physical & Occupational Therapy in Geriatrics has functioned as a forum for allied health professionals as well as others with a focus on rehabilitation of the geriatric client to share information, clinical experience, research, and therapeutic practice. Each issue focuses on current practice and emerging issues in the care of the older client, including rehabilitation and long-term care in institutional and community settings, and innovative programming; the entire range of problems experienced by the elderly; and the current skills needed for working with older clients.
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