Building a nuclear off-ramp following the war in Ukraine

Abstract

ABSTRACT Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered peace in Europe, and highlighted the fundamental disagreements between Russia and NATO over the status of Ukraine and other former Soviet territories. Russia raised the stakes of this disagreement by attempting to conquer Ukraine, and threatening to use nuclear weapons if NATO intervened. NATO and the European Union must negotiate an end to the fighting and deny Russian victory over Ukraine. Once peace is achieved, European security architecture must be rebuilt. This requires improving political relations between Russia and an expanded NATO, establishing stable military-to-military relations at reduced force levels, and reliably reducing the threat of nuclear war. NATO should indicate that it is willing to remove US nuclear weapons from Europe in exchange for similar Russian reductions – and the rearward movement of Russia’s non-strategic nuclear forces. Near-term agreement on such steps can reduce the short-term threat of nuclear war, while also setting the stage for negotiations on replacing the INF treaty with a new agreement banning intermediate and short-range offensive missiles in Europe. Both sides need to re-assert that nuclear arms are weapons of last resort and pledge never to employ them first in a conflict.