Multi-Source Mapping of Forest Susceptibility to Spruce Budworm Defoliation Based on Stand Age and Composition across a Complex Landscape in Maine, USA

Abstract

Abstract Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana; SBW) outbreaks in the northeastern USA and Canada are recurring phenomena leading to large-scale mortality of spruce (Picea sp.) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) forests as susceptibility to SBW is primarily determined by the availability of host species and their maturity. Our study examined several satellite remote sensing (Sentinel-1 C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR), PALSAR L-band SAR, and Sentinel-2 multispectral) and site variables over space and time to develop a method to produce large-scale SBW stand impact types and susceptibility maps in Maine, USA. We used two machine-learning algorithms (Random Forest, RF; Multi-Layer Perceptron, MLP) to map SBW host species where RF produced better results than MLP. Our best model with site (elevation and aspect) and Sentinel-2 data attained an overall accuracy (OA) of 83.4%. However, the addition of SAR variables did not improve the model further. Combining host species data with age data retrieved from Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) products, we demonstrated that SBW susceptibility map (based on stand impact types) could be produced with an OA of 88.3%. The fine spatial resolution (20 m) maps derived from our study provide reliable products for landscape-level SBW interventions in the region.