Estimating the annual runoff frequency distribution based on climatic conditions and catchment characteristics: A case study across China

Abstract

Estimation of the annual runoff frequency distribution is an essential basis for water resource management. This study proposes a framework for estimating the annual runoff frequency distribution across 252 catchments in China based on climatic conditions and catchment characteristics from 1956 to 2000. The Budyko land-specific parameter n, which intergrates influences other than the mean climate conditions, is firstly estimated based on easily ascertainable catchment characteristics without the requirements of having long-term runoff observations. Second, the annual runoff statistical parameters, namely, the mean value and standard deviation (STD), are derived based on the Budyko rainfall-runoff model with the central moment method. Finally, the annual runoff on any recurrence interval is obtained by the Pearson-III frequency function. Results show that the parameter n can be estimated from the catchment average slope, longitude, and climatic seasonality index. The estimated statistical parameters of annual runoff have acceptable agreement with observed values (mean value: R² ∼0.94, STD: R² ∼0.91, and both relative errors <10%). In addition, estimated annual runoff at each catchment for typical wet and dry years (25% and 75% ranked percentiles) coincides well with observed values, with R² of 0.92–0.93 and relative errors less than 10%. This result indicates the robustness of this framework for estimating the annual runoff frequency distribution, which provides a simple and effective tool for ungauged or poorly gauged catchments.