Understanding the impact of urban form attributes on household vehicle ownership and choice in metro Manila: Modeling, simulation, and application

M. Rith, Raymund Paolo B. Abad, Alexis M. Fillone, K. Doi, J. B. Biona
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

Projected economic growth is expected to further increase vehicle ownership among households in Metropolitan Manila. This increase is likely to translate to higher energy requirements, elevated greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, as well as a worsening of traffic congestion. A multinomial logit-based household vehicle ownership model was developed taking into account household characteristics and urban form peculiarities that are hypothesized to affect the level of vehicle ownership among households. The model utilized data gathered from a survey of 2,300 households from various areas of Metropolitan Manila. Results indicated that flooding susceptibility of communities does not affect vehicle ownership and type among its residents. Higher public transport density and closer proximity to essential facilities and services were found to be strong determinants that discourage vehicle ownership. Higher population density, contrary to findings in most studies, tends to reinforce vehicle ownership due to the inadequacy of public transport service, especially in crowded areas. The model was used to simulate “what if” shares of levels of vehicle ownership and apply the model under scenarios of 1) access to essential facilities, 2) improved road public transport line density, and 3) their combination. The results indicated that these interventions, relative to the baseline scenario, could respectively reduce vehicles owned by 26.63%, 35.02%, and 59.61% among the households surveyed and CO 2 emission by 1.33 million tonnes, 1.63 million tonnes, and 2.69 million tonnes.
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马尼拉都会区城市形态属性对家庭车辆拥有量和选择的影响:建模、模拟和应用
预计经济增长将进一步增加马尼拉大都会家庭的汽车拥有量。这种增长可能会转化为更高的能源需求、温室气体排放和空气污染的增加,以及交通拥堵的恶化。考虑影响家庭车辆拥有量水平的家庭特征和城市形态特征,建立了基于多项式逻辑的家庭车辆拥有量模型。该模型利用了对马尼拉大都会不同地区2300户家庭的调查数据。结果表明,社区的洪水易感性不影响居民的车辆拥有量和类型。研究发现,较高的公共交通密度和更接近基本设施和服务是阻碍私家车拥有量的重要决定因素。与大多数研究结果相反,较高的人口密度往往会增加车辆拥有量,因为公共交通服务不足,特别是在拥挤地区。该模型用于模拟车辆拥有量水平的“假设”份额,并将该模型应用于1)获得基本设施,2)改善道路公共交通线路密度以及3)两者组合的场景。结果表明,相对于基线情景,这些干预措施分别使被调查家庭的机动车保有量减少26.63%、35.02%和59.61%,二氧化碳排放量减少133万吨、163万吨和269万吨。
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来源期刊
Engineering and Applied Science Research
Engineering and Applied Science Research Engineering-Engineering (all)
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
2
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Publication of the journal started in 1974. Its original name was “KKU Engineering Journal”. English and Thai manuscripts were accepted. The journal was originally aimed at publishing research that was conducted and implemented in the northeast of Thailand. It is regarded a national journal and has been indexed in the Thai-journal Citation Index (TCI) database since 2004. The journal now accepts only English language manuscripts and became open-access in 2015 to attract more international readers. It was renamed Engineering and Applied Science Research in 2017. The editorial team agreed to publish more international papers, therefore, the new journal title is more appropriate. The journal focuses on research in the field of engineering that not only presents highly original ideas and advanced technology, but also are practical applications of appropriate technology.
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