The impacts of pandemic on urban housing prices: evidence from the outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing, 2020

Abstract

Purpose The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly raised economic risk and uncertainty worldwide. How does COVID-19 affect urban housing markets? Is there any difference when different areas encounter COVID-19? This study aims to investigate the impacts of the pandemic on housing prices by using Beijing’s housing markets data in 2020. Design/methodology/approach The authors use transaction-level data from April to September in 2020 to conduct a hedonic price analysis of the housing markets in Beijing. The data included 70,843 transactions scraped from a real estate agent’s website. The authors use the difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak from the Beijing Xinfadi market (the largest and most important food wholesale market in Beijing) in 2020. Findings This outbreak of COVID-19 caused a 6.3% drop in housing prices in Beijing from April to September in 2020. However, the impacts of COVID-19 on housing prices in different urban neighbourhoods were spatially heterogeneous. Housing prices in neighbourhoods with industries that rely on face-to-face communication were more affected by the pandemic, while those that can work remotely were less affected. Originality/value By investigating the impacts of COVID-19 on housing prices in Beijing, this study illustrates that urban housing prices would be impacted by the pandemic, at least in the short term. While the rise and fall of housing prices were found spatially heterogeneous in Beijing, it suggests that urban neighbourhoods with specific socioeconomic characteristics and geographic locations would unfold different resilience when encountering pandemic. By using data scraping and rigorous statistical tools, the study is probably one of the first ones examining the consequences of COVID-19 in intra-urban housing markets.