Changes in temperature and rainfall caused by three crops in the state of Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract

Introduction: The establishment of new crops may cause climatic alterations at the local or regional level. Objective: To analyze temperature and rainfall variation by simulated replacement of current vegetation through the introduction of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), jatropha (Jatropha curcas L.) and moringa (Moringa oleifera Lam.) in the central region of the state of Veracruz, Mexico. Materials and methods: Simulations of environmental temperature and rainfall for each crop and the control (current conditions: mixed crop, perennial trees, mixed forest and irrigated agriculture) were made with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4). The model was evaluated by comparative analysis between simulations and observed data, using the mean square error and the root-mean-square error as measures of dispersion. Results and discussion: Regions with soils devoid of natural vegetation, such as agricultural soils, would have greater climatic variability. In these soils, the displacement of current vegetation by sugarcane would generate the greatest thermal alterations with a decrease of 0.7 °C, while with jatropha and moringa, the decrease would be 0.3 °C. Regarding rainfall, the RegCM4 bias increases when there are high variations in elevation, thus other models should be explored. Conclusions: The introduction of moringa or jatropha for bioenergy purposes would be a low climatic impact alternative, while sugarcane is not considered suitable for these purposes due to the greater climatic impact that it would have in the region.