A systematic review in crude oil markets: Embarking on the oil price

Abstract

Crude oil plays an important role in economic activities, with both commodity attributes and financial characteristics. Through comprehensive review of the literature on crude oil prices, the following phenomena are presented. First, the forecasts and risk management of crude oil prices are still important topics when researchers conduct studies, however, the uncertainty of economic activity has aggravated the fluctuation of crude oil prices. Second, factors from supply side and demand side are main drivers of movements of crude oil prices, and investor sentiment gradually becomes an important factor affecting the expected level of crude oil prices. Third, economic activities and financial stability are influenced by shocks of crude oil prices, meanwhile, many studies confirm the asymmetric effects. However, due to changes in the external environment, more complex nonlinear time-varying features are exhibited. In addition, the advent of text mining technology and artificial intelligence technology provides new and effective methods for forecasting the trend of crude oil prices and conducting risk measurement in crude oil market.