The Impact of Ambiguity-induced Error in Offender Decision-making: Evidence from the Field

IF 2.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Pub Date : 2021-03-29 DOI:10.1177/00224278211000088
Gregory Midgette, Thomas A. Loughran, Sarah Tahamont
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Objectives: To invoke behavioral economics theories of ambiguity in the context of offender decision-making, and to test the impact of ambiguity in punishment certainty on offender decisions. Methods: We leverage a quasi-experimental condition among a sample of drunk driving arrestees that are tested for alcohol use and subject to mandatory brief incarceration for a violation. The treatment condition relaxes a zero-tolerance alcohol rule, thereby introducing design-based ambiguity surrounding the certainty of punishment. We use Mahalanobis matching and propensity score weighting methods to estimate the impact of ambiguity on violations. We then interrogate this finding with complementary sensitivity analyses. Results: When facing the ambiguity condition participants are 27–28 percentage points (84–93 percent) more likely to violate program conditions after 30 days of supervision. We demonstrate that a statistical difference in violations due to ambiguity is still detectible at 90 and 180 days of supervision. These results are robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests. Conclusions: This study is the first to examine the impact of ambiguity on criminal justice program compliance using a quasi-experiment from the field. We further demonstrate the unintended costs to persons under supervision and jurisdictions of laxity in program design, which are applicable across criminal justice domains.
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歧义引起的错误对罪犯决策的影响:来自现场的证据
目的:在罪犯决策的背景下援引模糊性的行为经济学理论,并检验惩罚确定性中的模糊性对罪犯决策的影响。方法:我们在酒后驾驶被捕者的样本中利用准实验条件,这些人接受了酒精使用测试,并因违规而被强制短暂监禁。治疗条件放松了零容忍酒精规则,从而引入了围绕惩罚确定性的基于设计的模糊性。我们使用Mahalanobis匹配和倾向得分加权方法来估计模糊性对违规行为的影响。然后,我们通过补充敏感性分析来质疑这一发现。结果:当面临模糊条件时,参与者在30天的监督后违反项目条件的可能性增加27-28个百分点(84-93%)。我们证明,在90天和180天的监督下,仍然可以检测到由于模糊性导致的违规行为的统计差异。这些结果对于替代规范和伪造测试是稳健的。结论:本研究首次使用现场准实验来检验歧义对刑事司法程序合规性的影响。我们进一步证明了受监管人员和程序设计松懈管辖区的意外成本,这些成本适用于整个刑事司法领域。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
6.20%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: For over 45 years, this international forum has advanced research in criminology and criminal justice. Through articles, research notes, and special issues, the Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency continues to keep you up to date on contemporary issues and controversies within the criminal justice field. Research and Analysis: The Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency presents a wide range of research and analysis in the field of criminology. You’ll find research on the social, political and economic contexts of criminal justice, examining victims, offenders, police, courts and sanctions. Comprehensive Coverage: The science of criminal justice combines a wide range of academic disciplines and fields of practice. To advance the field of criminal justice the journal provides a forum that is informed by a variety of fields. Among the perspectives that you’ll find represented in the journal are: -biology/genetics- criminology- criminal justice/administration- courts- corrections- crime prevention- crime science- economics- geography- police studies- political science- psychology- sociology.
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