THE ENERGY-GROWTH NEXUS WITHIN OIL PRODUCTION AND OIL RENTS CONTEXT

J. Fuinhas, A. Marques, Matheus Koengkan, Renato Santiago, A. Couto
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

The per capita primary energy consumption-economic growth nexus is examined in a panel of oil-producing countries over a long period (1970-2015), controlling for the exports of goods and services, the ratio of oil production to oil consumption, the oil rents, and international crude oil prices. It is confirmed that these countries share common spatial patterns, unobserved common factors, or both. A dynamic Driscoll-Kraay estimator, with fixed effects, is used to cope with the heteroskedasticity, contemporaneous correlation, first-order autocorrelation, and cross-sectional dependence. Results prove that energy consumption drives economic growth, but only on the short-run. The ratio of oil production to oil consumption has exerted a positive impact on growth in both the short- and long-run. Oil prices only exert a positive effect on growth in the short-run. Oil rents depress growth, suggesting that oil is more a curse than a blessing for the economies.
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石油生产和石油租金背景下的能源增长关系
在长期(1970-2015)的石油生产国面板中,控制了商品和服务的出口、石油生产与石油消费的比例、石油租金和国际原油价格,研究了人均一次能源消费与经济增长之间的关系。可以肯定的是,这些国家有共同的空间格局,或有未观察到的共同因素,或两者兼而有之。采用具有固定效应的动态Driscoll-Kraay估计量来处理异方差、同期相关、一阶自相关和横截面依赖。研究结果表明,能源消费对经济增长有推动作用,但只是短期的。从短期和长期来看,石油生产与消费的比例对经济增长都产生了积极的影响。油价只会在短期内对经济增长产生积极影响。石油租金抑制了经济增长,这表明石油对经济来说与其说是祝福,不如说是诅咒。
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