Dynamic Estimation of a Traditional Import Demand Function for Botswana

Abstract

This article estimates the import demand function for Botswana, which is rated among the fastest-growing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, the study finds that Botswana’s import demand is inelastic to the changes in import prices, both in the short run and in the long run, which resembles the import demand behavior in other fast-growing economies. The inelastic response of the import demand to import price is not surprising for a country that mainly imports diamonds, fuel, and machinery, all essential items for export production and economic development. The study further confirms that structural instabilities have a significant negative impact on Botswana’s import demand, which is an element that the policymakers must pay attention to. Considering the recent developments in the African continent, which include the recent ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), this study suggests that policymakers in Botswana should revisit the country’s import policy and determine how Botswana’s imports can be positioned in a way that could benefit the sought-after intra-African trade.