Shaping political orientations: testing the effect of unemployment on ideological beliefs and voting behaviour

Abstract

ABSTRACT Using data from the European Social Survey we test whether a period of unemployment in Ireland shapes individuals’ core political ideological beliefs towards the left of the political spectrum and whether the experience of unemployment prompts people to vote for left-leaning parties. Results indicate that unemployment is linked with more leftward core political ideological beliefs and is associated with a tendency to vote for left-leaning parties. A central implication of our findings is that the sizeable increase in the extent of unemployment, as a consequence of the restrictions due to the COVID pandemic, may well have fundamental political ramifications influencing the political ideology and values of an unprecedented number of people. Right and centre-right parties in order to remain popular in recent times have tended to shift their policies leftward. The potential implications of the high unemployment during the recent pandemic may reinforce this trend.