The softwood lumber dispute: Is a solution possible?

Abstract

Canadian exports of softwood lumber to the USA have long been a source of conflict. As the last Softwood Lumber Agreement expired, we examined this issue as a University class project in forest policy. This text presents our analysis of the history of this conflict and the positions of various actors, along with our twenty-year plan for resolving this conflict. Our strategy is in three phases, corresponding to our expectations of future events: five years of conflict and negotiation that we should use to prepare certain changes in our forest sector; ten years under a new agreement during which we can implement these changes; followed by another conflict that we hope Canada will win, resulting in lumber becoming just another traded commodity. Our policy has four key elements: a gradual transition to market-price systems for 55% of public forest lumber volume; an expansion of value-added transformation and diversification of products; a reduction of softwood lumber production; and, a coordination role for t...