The local effects of federal law enforcement policies: Evidence from sanctuary jurisdictions and crime

Abstract

This study estimates the association between sanctuary policies and crime in the United States by exploiting an increase in state and local sanctuary policy adoption in 2014. Counties that adopted sanctuary policies in 2014 experienced a decrease of 17.9 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants per year (0.02 percentage points) compared to counties that continued to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency (ICE), with the relationship driven by decreases in robberies and assaults. This result implies that sanctuary policies avoid $101 million per year in crime costs. Conversely, ICE cooperation increases crime costs in local communities by $3.28 billion per year.