Evaluation Criteria and Approach to Voyage Planning in Ice. Verification on the Example of German Ship Activity During the Second World War

T. Pastusiak
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract Vessels designed for navigation in ice can perform voyage with the assistance of icebreaker in the navigation season in case an ice cover area is less than 20%. Whereas the same vessels could carry out successfully completed voyage through the NSR with intensive icebreaker help at the ice-covered area lower than 42%. Navigation of the same vessel at ice covered area above 80% is possible with intensive icebreaker help, but it threatens to damage the hull, rudder or propeller. Excessive generalization of data analyzed may cause to wrong, even opposite conclusions. Using only basic statistical information in the form of average values and standard deviation may be not sufficient for the purpose of vessel’s voyage planning in areas covered with ice. Much more opportunities for the assessment of navigation in ice covered regions provides cumulative distribution, which should be related to the time and geographical space distribution. It allows to determine the duration of time window for given area covered with ice in a particular region and predetermined probability of its occurrence. It is thus possible to plan approximate date of departure and duration of voyage for assumed safety criteria. Also, it is possible to plan a number of consecutive voyages in a navigation season. Mathematical approach to voyage planning in ice based on a cumulative distribution is presented in the paper. It allows creation of an advisory computer application to support decision-making by the commander of a vessel. It will reduce the human factor in data processing and reduce possibility of making a mistake. By this way, can be enhanced the safety of maritime transport. Novell approach is verified on the example of historical data about the German Navy ship activity during the Second World War.
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冰上航行计划评价标准与方法。第二次世界大战期间德国舰船活动实例的验证
摘要冰面航行船舶在航行季节,当冰面覆盖面积小于20%时,可以借助破冰船进行航行。然而,同样的船只可以在冰雪覆盖面积低于42%的情况下,在破冰船的密集帮助下,成功完成通过北极航道的航行。在破冰船的密集帮助下,同一艘船可以在超过80%的冰层覆盖区域航行,但这可能会损坏船体、方向舵或螺旋桨。对所分析的数据进行过度概括可能会导致错误甚至相反的结论。仅使用平均值和标准差形式的基本统计信息可能不足以用于船舶在冰雪覆盖地区的航行规划。对冰雪覆盖地区的航行评估提供了更多的机会,提供了累积分布,这应与时间和地理空间分布有关。它可以确定某一特定地区给定覆盖面积的时间窗口的持续时间,并预先确定其发生的概率。因此,可以根据假定的安全标准计划大致的出发日期和航行时间。此外,在一个航行季节计划多次连续航行也是可能的。本文提出了一种基于累积分布的冰面航行规划数学方法。它允许创建一个咨询计算机应用程序,以支持船舶指挥官的决策。它将减少数据处理中的人为因素,减少出错的可能性。通过这种方式,可以提高海上运输的安全性。以第二次世界大战期间德国海军舰艇活动的历史数据为例,验证了Novell方法。
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