Drilling into the Mantle: A Key to Prognosticating the Future of the Ocean Planet

Abstract

Water circulation, along with plate subduction, is considered based on the stabilities of hydrous phases and pressure ­ temperature profiles of the sinking oceanic plate. Water in a rather hot slab like the present one may be largely liberated at shallow depths （ < 150 km ） and return to the ocean via. arc magmatism. On the other hand, stabilization of dense hydrous minerals under cooler conditions, which current subduction zones will soon experience, causes the transportation or reflux of seawater to the deep mantle, which reduces the total mass of surface seawater. Simple calculations accepting water contents in the subducting slab suggested by a recent seismic velocity structure model indicate that the Earth’s oceans are likely to disappear ~80 million years hence. Significant changes may happen such as the end of plate tectonics and the onset of snowball Earth, with associated catastrophes affecting life. The only way to confirm this picture of the future of the ocean planet Earth is to examine deep hydration taking place along the outer rise through direct analyses of the upper mantle across the