Forecasting energy demand, supply, and carbon footprint for greenfield planning in the context of net zero systems: Case study on Western Sydney Aerotropolis in New South Wales, Australia

Abstract

Greenfield precincts offer an opportunity to develop energy hubs, which can help the transition to carbon neutrality. However, this requires a detailed demand model, which is often not available in the early planning stages. To address this need, this paper proposes a novel methodology for building a demand model using available information, including types of zones/sectors present on-site, historical energy consumption of those sectors at a national level, and energy consumption studies on floor-stock basis (i.e., floor area). We apply this approach in a case study energizing the proposed Aerotropolis Core Precinct (ACP) within the wider Aerotropolis site to be constructed in Western Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. The model also looks at supplying this demand, and the corresponding associated emissions, for the years 2025, 2035 and 2050 – in line with Australia’s Net Zero-time horizon. Results show that ACP demand increases from 368 GWh in 2025 to 1,233 GWh in 2035 then 1,444 GWh in 2050, as is expected moving from partial to full operation and accounting for temperature-dependent demand fluctuations. Electrical demand is 62% of total demand, while thermal is 38%. Generated supply is estimated to increase from 221 MW (2025) to 866 MW (2035) and 1,077 MW (2050), accounting for capacity factors. Emissions associated with that demand will change from 185 ktCO₂eq to 229 ktCO₂eq then decrease to 201 ktCO₂eq due to an increasingly “greener” technology mix predicted (i.e., no use of coal due to shutdowns of coal-fired power plants, and very little gas use by 2050). These methods and estimates provide a decision-making basis for government policy-making, energy planning, and technology supply for greenfield sites, as well as provide a platform to invite stakeholder engagement.