Frequency analysis of agricultural drought of maize in Sabie River catchment in South Africa

IF 1.3 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Jamba-Journal of Disaster Risk Studies Pub Date : 2019-11-06 DOI:10.4102/jamba.v11i1.549
Eric M Masereka, G. Ochieng, J. Snyman
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a staple food in South Africa. Under dryland farming, drought is a major limiting factor for maize production. The yield of maize is drastically reduced when rainfall is limited and erratic during the growing season. In order to formulate strategies of reducing the impact of drought on maize production, it is necessary to analyse the magnitude and frequency of drought. The objective of this study was to carry out the magnitude and frequency analysis of agricultural drought events of maize in the Sabie River catchment in order to formulate methods of reducing the impact of drought on maize production in the catchment. The maize growing season in the Sabie River catchment begins in October and ends in February the following year. In this study, the maize growing season was divided into three growing periods based on the month maize is planted. The growing periods were: October to December, November to January and December to February. Simple water balance model in the root zone was applied to determine the minimum amount of rainfall required to meet the water requirement of maize in each growing period in all the eight rainfall zones into which the Sabie River catchment is divided. Empirical frequency analysis and stochastic frequency analysis of the agricultural drought events of maize were carried out. From the study, the return period of agricultural drought events of maize was found to be different for each rainfall zone, and the growing period ranges from 1.78 years to 2.68 years. These results are important for hydrological modellers in that they show that it is necessary to determine the best fit probability distribution for frequency analysis of hydrological events rather than assuming one as the best fit. In all rainfall zones, maize was least prone to drought in the growing period of October to December. Based on the results of the study, development of water resource infrastructure for irrigation and adoption of drought-tolerant varieties of maize was recommended to reduce the high risk of agricultural drought of maize in the Sabie River catchment.
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南非萨比河流域玉米农业干旱频率分析
玉米是南非的主食。在旱地农业中,干旱是玉米生产的一个主要限制因素。当生长季节降雨量有限且不稳定时,玉米产量会大幅下降。为了制定减少干旱对玉米生产影响的策略,有必要分析干旱的程度和频率。本研究的目的是对萨比河流域玉米的农业干旱事件进行幅度和频率分析,以制定减少干旱对该流域玉米生产影响的方法。萨比河流域的玉米生长季节从10月开始,到次年2月结束。在本研究中,玉米生长季节根据种植玉米的月份分为三个生长期。生长期为:10月至12月,11月至1月,12月至2月。在Sabie河流域划分的所有八个降雨区中,根区的简单水平衡模型被应用于确定满足玉米在每个生长期的需水量所需的最小降雨量。对玉米农业干旱事件进行了经验频率分析和随机频率分析。研究发现,每个降雨区玉米农业干旱事件的重现期不同,生长期从1.78年到2.68年不等。这些结果对水文建模者来说很重要,因为它们表明,有必要确定水文事件频率分析的最佳拟合概率分布,而不是假设其为最佳拟合。在所有降雨区,玉米在10月至12月的生长期最不容易干旱。根据研究结果,建议开发灌溉水资源基础设施,并采用耐旱玉米品种,以降低萨比河流域玉米农业干旱的高风险。
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来源期刊
Jamba-Journal of Disaster Risk Studies
Jamba-Journal of Disaster Risk Studies SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
7.10%
发文量
37
审稿时长
37 weeks
期刊最新文献
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