The Robot from Ipanema goes Working: Estimating the Probability of Jobs Automation in Brazil

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Latin American Business Review Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI:10.1080/10978526.2019.1633238

P. Albuquerque, Cayan Atreio Portela Barcena Saavedra, Rafael Lima de Morais, Yaohao Peng

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we replicated the method applied by Frey and Osborne to investigate the automation probability of jobs in Brazil, using data from Brazilian labor market administrative records between 1986 and 2017. We categorized each job listed on Brazil’s Occupational Classification System into Job Zones based on its technical qualifications requirements and estimated the future demand for workers of each Job Zone from 2018 to 2046. To estimate the probability of automation for each occupation, we first collected the expert opinion of 69 specialists on artificial intelligence and then applied a Gaussian process using as input the text description of each occupation. The results showed that in 2017 55% of all formally employed workers in Brazil are in jobs with high or very high risk of automation, a value consistent with similar works found in the literature for other countries. The findings of this paper can aid policy makers to anticipate potential increased unemployment for occupations with high risk of automation, anticipate future transformations of the Brazilian labor market, and consequently support the planning of economic and social interventions.

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Ipanema的机器人开始工作：估计巴西工作自动化的可能性

本文采用1986年至2017年巴西劳动力市场行政记录的数据，复制了Frey和Osborne用于调查巴西工作自动化概率的方法。我们根据技术资格要求将巴西职业分类系统中列出的每个工作分类为工作区域，并估计了2018年至2046年每个工作区域对工人的未来需求。为了估计每个职业的自动化概率，我们首先收集了69位人工智能专家的专家意见，然后使用高斯过程作为输入，将每个职业的文本描述作为输入。结果显示，2017年，巴西所有正式就业工人中有55%从事自动化风险高或非常高的工作，这一数值与其他国家文献中的类似研究结果一致。本文的研究结果可以帮助政策制定者预测自动化风险高的职业可能增加的失业率，预测巴西劳动力市场的未来转型，从而支持经济和社会干预的规划。

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来源期刊

Latin American Business Review Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Latin American Business Review is a quarterly, refereed journal which facilitates the exchange of information and new ideas between academics, business practitioners, public policymakers, and those in the international development community. Special features of the journal will keep you current on various teaching, research, and information sources. These activities all focus on the business and economic environment of the diverse and dynamic countries of the Americas.