Response of potential grassland vegetation to historical and future climate change in Inner Mongolia

Abstract

Assessing current and potential future grassland vegetation types and distribution has important practical implications in grassland management. In this study, historical and projected climate data from Inner Mongolia were used to classify grassland classes for two historical (1960–1986 and 1986–2011) and two future periods (2021–2024 and 2041–2060) using the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS). Changes of grassland classes in these time periods were investigated. The results indicated that (1) using the CSCS provided an efficient approach to investigate the impact of historical and future climate on grassland classes and their distribution in Inner Mongolia over time and space; (2) since 1986, the precipitation in Inner Mongolia has declined, decreasing the semi-humid zone area and expanding that of arid and semi-arid areas. The area of Tundra and alpine steppe, Temperate zonal humid grassland and Temperate zonal forest steppe decreased, and that of Frigid desert, Semi-desert, and Steppe group increased; and (3) under the projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation in large areas in Inner Mongolia by 2060, the area of arid grassland classes will likely expand (Frigid desert, Semi-desert, and Steppe), and the grassland classes of Tundra and alpine steppe may gradually disappear. Government investment in infrastructure and grassland management measures such as introducing drought tolerant grass species and improved precipitation utilisation through irrigation are needed to adapt to the changing climate. Inner Mongolia should take advantage of the benefits of the increase in temperature in the eastern semi-humid region that would permit reduced grazing pressure in the western arid region.