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IF 7.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1086/718656
Ayşegül Şahi̇n
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Abstract

Hall and Kudlyak start with the observation that in the typical US business cycle recovery, unemployment declines slowly but reliably from a high point at the end of a business cycle contraction. They show that the direct effect of job loss at the onset of the recession cannot account for the persistently high unemployment rate during the recovery. The recession’s effects on the labor market go beyond the job losses that mark the beginning of recessions.Hall andKudlyak then exploremodelswhere there is feedback from high unemployment to the forces driving job creation. These mechanisms include higher recruiting costs early in the recovery, congestion in recruitment, externalities from recruitment selection, lower matching efficiency, impaired profitability of new matches, and persistently higher separation rates. These models imply that the recovery of aggregate unemployment is slower than the rate at which individual unemployed workers find new jobs. The paper tackles an interesting and eternal topic. Understanding how the labormarket recovers from recessionary shocks and howfirms recruit and search for workers helps us in shaping policy response to recessionary shocks. This comment reviews and interprets Hall and Kudlyak’s findings and suggests new directions of research.
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Hall和Kudlyak首先观察到,在典型的美国商业周期复苏中,失业率从商业周期收缩结束时的高点缓慢但可靠地下降。他们表明,经济衰退开始时失业的直接影响无法解释经济复苏期间失业率居高不下的原因。经济衰退对劳动力市场的影响不仅仅是标志着经济衰退开始的失业。Hall和Kudlyak随后探讨了高失业率对创造就业的力量的反馈。这些机制包括复苏初期招聘成本较高、招聘拥堵、招聘选择的外部性、匹配效率较低、新匹配的盈利能力受损以及离职率持续较高。这些模型表明,总失业率的恢复速度慢于个别失业工人找到新工作的速度。这篇论文涉及一个有趣而又永恒的话题。了解劳动力市场如何从衰退冲击中复苏,以及企业如何招聘和寻找工人,有助于我们制定应对衰退冲击的政策。这篇评论回顾并解释了Hall和Kudlyak的发现,并提出了新的研究方向。
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5.10
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0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: The Nber Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields.
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