Proyección del cambio de uso de suelo urbano mediante técnicas de microsimulación, bajo un escenario de escasez de datos en el sector de San Carlos, Huancayo, Perú 2018- 2028

Abstract

Short and mid-term urban projections are useful tools for the planning of a city, although many local governments of Latin American cities have very little information. Such is the context of this study. Specifically, we will study the sector of San Carlos in the city of Huancayo, Peru, which shows high consolidation and great urban dynamism.  The purpose of this study is to present practical methods of micro-simulation that can effectively project possible scenarios inside urban environment under conditions of data scarcity. The model incorporates binary and multinominal functions. It uses a simple programmed agent with purpose rules used to adjust the projections. A data reference framework is established, supported by mixed methods of data collection such as satellite images, direct observation, use of open digital records and expert’s judgement. A diversity of software tools was used in the projection process, like ArcGIS, SPSS, MS Excel and programmed scripts. The results show a distinctive development of the sector of San Carlos with important changes in the settings of single family houses that favor the emergence of low density multi-family houses. At the same time the sector experiences an increase of buildings for economic and service uses. A trend in vertical urban growth and a free area reduction are clearly identified. The procedures of the study are clear and encourage the use of technological tools to support the collection of data, with the purpose of developing better urban plans. This study also shows that there is a need to have more research done in this area.