Explaining penal momentum: Path dependence, prison population forecasting and the persistence of high incarceration rates in England and Wales

Q2 Social Sciences Howard Journal of Crime and Justice Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI:10.1111/hojo.12507
Thomas Guiney, Henry Yeomans
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Abstract

This article seeks to explain the persistence of high incarceration rates in England and Wales. Building upon recent theoretical work on path dependence, we identify prison population forecasting as a poorly understood positive feedback mechanism that helps to determine the overall scale, scope and reach of the prison estate by connecting capital expenditure decisions with ‘business as usual’ planning cycles that assume considerable policy continuity with the past. We illustrate this point with reference to recent controversies over women's imprisonment where the everyday, routinised working practices of the penal system have played an important role in sustaining prison expansionism long after the initial conditions that fuelled the mid-1990s prison boom have faded. Disrupting these self-fulfilling logics will not be easy and we conclude this article with a call for a more deliberative democratic politics that confronts penal momentum and invites greater consideration of the many possible futures of penal policy.

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解释刑罚动量:路径依赖,监狱人口预测和英格兰和威尔士高监禁率的持续存在
这篇文章试图解释英格兰和威尔士居高不下的监禁率。基于最近关于路径依赖的理论工作,我们将监狱人口预测确定为一种鲜为人知的正反馈机制,通过将资本支出决策与“一切照旧”的规划周期联系起来,假设与过去有相当大的政策连续性,有助于确定监狱产业的总体规模、范围和范围。我们通过最近关于女性监禁的争议来说明这一点,在1990年代中期推动监狱繁荣的初始条件消退后,刑罚系统的日常例行工作实践在维持监狱扩张方面发挥了重要作用。打破这些自我实现的逻辑并不容易,我们在本文的最后呼吁建立一个更审慎的民主政治,以对抗刑事势头,并邀请更多地考虑刑事政策的许多可能的未来。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
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0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice is an international peer-reviewed journal committed to publishing high quality theory, research and debate on all aspects of the relationship between crime and justice across the globe. It is a leading forum for conversation between academic theory and research and the cultures, policies and practices of the range of institutions concerned with harm, security and justice.
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