Trade Competition Between ASEAN, China, and India: The Post-trade War and COVID-19 Scenario

Abstract

This study examines the exports of large developing economies; such as Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, and India, and discusses the post-trade war and COVID-19 scenario. Applying an export sophistication index to their trade data, we investigate the export structure of these economies. In addition, using regression analysis, we examine the resilience of their skill and technology-intensive manufacturing exports to exchange rate and demand shocks. The estimated export sophistication index detects that China’s export sophistication has not always been a step ahead in comparison to ASEAN countries and India, which contrasts with China’s remarkable export growth. Our panel DOLS estimation reveals that their manufacturing exports are highly responsive to demand shocks, although the effects of bilateral exchange rate changes vary across product groups. An appreciation of the competitors’ currencies possibly encourages their manufacturing exports. In addition, our estimation reveals that China possibly mitigates the negative effects of the trade war and COVID-19 with its advantage in the global value chains as a contributor of value-added. These results have some implications for the effects of decoupling China and the USA because of their trade war and COVID-19 situation.