Zabrinjava me budućnost i razmišljam o odlasku: Usporedba migracijskih aspiracija mladih iz Hrvatske i jugoistočne Europe

Abstract

The paper deals with the influence of individual and contextual factors on the emigration aspirations of young people in Croatia, and with a comparison of the emigration aspirations of young people from Croatia in 2018 with young people from nine European Central and East-ern countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo, Romania, North Macedonia, Slovenia and Serbia). The insights presented in the paper are the result of a project carried out by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in the mentioned countries. A comparison of emigration aspirations in 2018 suggests that young people from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia show lower aspirations than young people from countries that are not members of the European Union: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. The applied regression model on the sample of young in 2012 in Croatia points that certain sociodemographic characteristics (age, education, type of settlement and planning extramarital relationship) are the most important predictors of migration aspirations. In 2018, in addition to age, migration aspirations were expressed by respondents according to all levels of education and young people from smaller towns. Young people’s attitudes towards the future of Croatia are relatively consistent; it shows that in 2012 those who saw the economic situation in Croatia as the same or worse were the most inclined to leave, while in 2018 aspirations were shown by young people who perceived the future of Croatian society to be worse. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy was statistically significant in 2018. is especially present in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania and North Macedonia. To a much lesser extent, the main motive for moving to another country is better education. In the regression model, the view on the future of society was the most consistent predictor, along with other predictors that differ according to the analyzed countries.