COVID-19: Epidemiological Models

Abstract

The world has been confronted in recent decades with several infectious disease outbreaks caused by novel pathogens, with the COVID-19 pandemic being the most severe of these. In this article, I review some of the main elements of epidemiological models used to forecast the trajectory of a new epidemic and to guide public health policy responses to a new infectious disease. I argue that economists have a lot to contribute to the discussion of public health policies, particularly in regard to assessing the costs and benefits of alternative policies and in improving the modeling of changes in human behavior in response to new infectious diseases. This survey is intended to serve economists interested in starting research in these areas. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 15 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.