How do political opportunities impact protest potential? A multilevel cross-national assessment

Abstract

This article tests the general explanatory power of political opportunity theory for cross-national variations in protest throughout the world, and considers how opportunities influence individual-level characteristics crucial for coalition-formation and campaigns. This study constructs a multilevel model of protest potential, using survey data from individuals across 43 countries, drawn from the fifth and sixth waves of the World Values Survey, combined with political, economic, and cultural factors measured for each country. While many individual factors predicted individuals’ protest potential, a mixture of country-level factors—including select political opportunities—are of general importance. Country-level regime durability and empowerment rights moderated the effect of organization membership, social trust, and political ideology on protest, demonstrating how political opportunity interacts to enhance the impact of individual characteristics relevant to coalition-building and campaigns.