M. Beal, B. O'Reilly, Caitlin Soley, Kaitlynn R. Hietpas, P. Block
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract Beal MRW, O’Reilly BE, Soley CK, Hietpas KR, Block PJ. 2022. Variability of summer cyanobacteria abundance: can season-ahead forecasts improve beach management? Lake Reserv Manage. 39:37–52. As anthropogenic eutrophication and the associated increase of cyanobacteria continue to plague inland waterbodies, local officials are seeking novel methods to proactively manage water resources. Cyanobacteria are of particular concern to health officials due to their ability to produce dangerous hepatotoxins and neurotoxins, which can threaten waterbodies for recreational and drinking-water purposes. Presently, however, there is no cyanobacteria outlook that can provide advance warning of a potential threat at the seasonal time scale. In this study, a statistical model is developed utilizing local and global scale season-ahead hydroclimatic predictors to evaluate the potential for informative cyanobacteria biomass and associated beach closure forecasts across the June–August season for a eutrophic lake in Wisconsin (United States). This model is developed as part of a subseasonal to seasonal cyanobacteria forecasting system to optimize lake management across the peak cyanobacteria season. Model skill is significant in comparison to June–August cyanobacteria observations (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.62, Heidke skill score = 0.38). The modeling framework proposed here demonstrates encouraging prediction skill and offers the possibility of advanced beach management applications.
期刊介绍：
Lake and Reservoir Management (LRM) publishes original, previously unpublished studies relevant to lake and reservoir management. Papers address the management of lakes and reservoirs, their watersheds and tributaries, along with the limnology and ecology needed for sound management of these systems. Case studies that advance the science of lake management or confirm important management concepts are appropriate as long as there is clearly described management significance. Papers on economic, social, regulatory and policy aspects of lake management are also welcome with appropriate supporting data and management implications. Literature syntheses and papers developing a conceptual foundation of lake and watershed ecology will be considered for publication, but there needs to be clear emphasis on management implications. Modeling papers will be considered where the model is properly verified but it is also highly preferable that management based on the model has been taken and results have been documented. Application of known models to yet another system without a clear advance in resultant management are unlikely to be accepted. Shorter notes that convey important early results of long-term studies or provide data relating to causative agents or management approaches that warrant further study are acceptable even if the story is not yet complete. All submissions are subject to peer review to assure relevance and reliability for management application.
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