Inferring the Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic with Close Contacts Counting

Abstract

Close contacts with high-risk exposure to COVID-19 cases are more robust in statistics for inferring future development of COVID-19 epidemic In Beijing, the proportion of close contact cases in newly confirmed cases had increased from about 50% at the end of January to nearly 100% in mid-February, indicating that contact tracing and quarantine measures are effective non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the epidemic In addition, we show at the national level that the cumulative number of close contacts was stabilized at about eight times as much as infected individuals, and the growth rate of daily close contacts was consistent with that of daily confirmed cases 5~6 days later Consequently, tracking the daily change of close contacts is beneficial to predict the trend of the epidemic, based on which advanced medical supplies scheduling and effective epidemic prevention can be achieved © 2020, Editorial Board of Journal of the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China All right reserved