Forecasting the Number of Grandparents in Russia under Conditions of Limited Information Resources

Abstract

This paper considers grandparenthood as a mechanism for effective implementation of the resource potential of older people. We develop and implement a methodology for forecasting the number of Russian grandparents. It consists of two parts: a method for forecasting the number of grandparents in general and active grandparents (participating in the care for and upbringing of grandchildren) in particular. The two parts of the methodology use different sources of information and have specific characteristics described in detail in the paper. The application of these methods allow us to forecast a growth in the number of both grandparents and active grandparents in Russia. The methodological value of the study lies in the development of demographic forecasting, while the practical value lies in the potential demand for these results to enhance informational support for the national project “Demography.”