A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests

IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2023-08-25 DOI:10.1007/s10479-023-05540-x
Daniel Goller, Sandro Heiniger
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Abstract

We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through scheduling and the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.

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量化多项目比赛中项目重要性的通用框架
我们提出了一个统计框架,用于量化单一事件的重要性,这些事件不提供中间奖励,但通过日程安排和多事件竞赛结束时的奖励结构提供隐性奖励。我们将该框架应用于美国的初选,结果表明,日程安排的变化可以缓解选举前置的问题。在应用于欧洲足球比赛时,我们证明了量化赛事重要性与参赛选手赛场表现的实用性和意义,从而改善了结果预测,并提供了公众兴趣的早期迹象。
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来源期刊
Annals of Operations Research
Annals of Operations Research 管理科学-运筹学与管理科学
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
16.70%
发文量
596
审稿时长
8.4 months
期刊介绍: The Annals of Operations Research publishes peer-reviewed original articles dealing with key aspects of operations research, including theory, practice, and computation. The journal publishes full-length research articles, short notes, expositions and surveys, reports on computational studies, and case studies that present new and innovative practical applications. In addition to regular issues, the journal publishes periodic special volumes that focus on defined fields of operations research, ranging from the highly theoretical to the algorithmic and the applied. These volumes have one or more Guest Editors who are responsible for collecting the papers and overseeing the refereeing process.
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