{"title":"Impact of the tariff concessions of the RCEP agreement on the structure and evolution mechanism of manufacturing trade networks","authors":"Nina Zhu , Siyi Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.socnet.2023.01.008","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the world’s largest free trade area, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement will gradually eliminate tariffs on over 90% of member countries’ goods over the next 36 years. We construct a tariff policy effects evaluation framework based on the complex network theory. In this framework, the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is recursively extended to generate forecasted data of bilateral trade. Based on this, we model the RCEP manufacturing trade networks and analyze the response of its core–periphery structure to the tariff concessions. Then, we evaluate policy effects on the evolution of trade patterns based on motif analysis. Finally, we construct separable temporal exponential family random graph models (STERGM) to explore the influence path and degree of the new tariff agreement on the evolutionary mechanisms of trade networks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48353,"journal":{"name":"Social Networks","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 78-101"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Social Networks","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378873323000096","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ANTHROPOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
In the world’s largest free trade area, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement will gradually eliminate tariffs on over 90% of member countries’ goods over the next 36 years. We construct a tariff policy effects evaluation framework based on the complex network theory. In this framework, the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is recursively extended to generate forecasted data of bilateral trade. Based on this, we model the RCEP manufacturing trade networks and analyze the response of its core–periphery structure to the tariff concessions. Then, we evaluate policy effects on the evolution of trade patterns based on motif analysis. Finally, we construct separable temporal exponential family random graph models (STERGM) to explore the influence path and degree of the new tariff agreement on the evolutionary mechanisms of trade networks.
期刊介绍：
Social Networks is an interdisciplinary and international quarterly. It provides a common forum for representatives of anthropology, sociology, history, social psychology, political science, human geography, biology, economics, communications science and other disciplines who share an interest in the study of the empirical structure of social relations and associations that may be expressed in network form. It publishes both theoretical and substantive papers. Critical reviews of major theoretical or methodological approaches using the notion of networks in the analysis of social behaviour are also included, as are reviews of recent books dealing with social networks and social structure.
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