{"title":"Modeling urban land use dynamics using Markov-chain and cellular automata in Gondar City, Northwest Ethiopia","authors":"Ergo Beyene , Amare Sewnet Minale","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2023.06.007","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Modeling urban land-use dynamics is critical for urban experts’ and infrastructure managers’ planning. This study attempts to explore the land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics of Gondar using satellite images from 1984 to 2020. Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata (MC-CA) models have been recognized as performing well in predicting urban land-use change. However, only a few models work in Ethiopia in general, and no study in Gondar has applied this approach to study urban land-use patterns. Therefore, Gondar land-use/land-cover changes of Gondar were predicted using the MC-CA model in IDRISI. The built-up area in Gondar city covered 1 413 ha (3% of the total area) in 1984 and increased to 2 380 ha (5%) in 1994; 21 153 ha (45.5%) in 2004; 22 622 ha (48.7%) in 2014; and 23 427 ha (50.5%) in 2020. The area has been predicted to reach 57.5% in the 2050s, showing a faster increase that will cause a very vast loss of farmland. This will increase urban sprawl challenges as well as overall environmental disequilibrium in the preceding decade. Thus, innovative and careful structures and systems in urban planning are required to secure a sustainable urban future and to make our cities livable and competitive in the paradigm of sustainable cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 111-120"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2325426223000189","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Modeling urban land-use dynamics is critical for urban experts’ and infrastructure managers’ planning. This study attempts to explore the land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics of Gondar using satellite images from 1984 to 2020. Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata (MC-CA) models have been recognized as performing well in predicting urban land-use change. However, only a few models work in Ethiopia in general, and no study in Gondar has applied this approach to study urban land-use patterns. Therefore, Gondar land-use/land-cover changes of Gondar were predicted using the MC-CA model in IDRISI. The built-up area in Gondar city covered 1 413 ha (3% of the total area) in 1984 and increased to 2 380 ha (5%) in 1994; 21 153 ha (45.5%) in 2004; 22 622 ha (48.7%) in 2014; and 23 427 ha (50.5%) in 2020. The area has been predicted to reach 57.5% in the 2050s, showing a faster increase that will cause a very vast loss of farmland. This will increase urban sprawl challenges as well as overall environmental disequilibrium in the preceding decade. Thus, innovative and careful structures and systems in urban planning are required to secure a sustainable urban future and to make our cities livable and competitive in the paradigm of sustainable cities.
期刊介绍:
The Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment (CJPRE) is a peer-reviewed international academic journal that publishes original research in the fields of economic, population, resource, and environment studies as they relate to sustainable development. The journal aims to address and evaluate theoretical frameworks, capability building initiatives, strategic goals, ethical values, empirical research, methodologies, and techniques in the field. CJPRE began publication in 1992 and is sponsored by the Chinese Society for Sustainable Development (CSSD), the Research Center for Sustainable Development of Shandong Province, the Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21), and Shandong Normal University. The Chinese title of the journal was inscribed by the former Chinese leader, Mr. Deng Xiaoping. Initially focused on China's advances in sustainable development, CJPRE now also highlights global developments from both developed and developing countries.