A novel web-based online nomogram to predict advanced liver fibrosis in patients with autoimmune hepatitis-primary biliary cholangitis overlap syndrome
Zhiyi Zhang , Jian Wang , Yun Chen , Yiguang Li , Li Zhu , Huali Wang , Yilin Liu , Jiacheng Liu , Shengxia Yin , Xin Tong , Xiaomin Yan , Yuxin Chen , Chuanwu Zhu , Jie Li , Yuanwang Qiu , Chao Wu , Rui Huang
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background
Patients with autoimmune hepatitis-primary biliary cholangitis (AIH-PBC) overlap syndrome have a worse prognosis compared to AIH or PBC alone and accurately predicting the severity and dynamically monitoring the progression of disease are therefore essential. We aimed to develop a nomogram-based model to predict advanced liver fibrosis in patients with AIH-PBC overlap syndrome.
Methods
A total of 121 patients with AIH-PBC overlap syndrome were retrospectively included and randomly assigned to a development set and a validation set. Backward stepwise regression's best model with the lowest AIC was employed to create a nomogram. Diagnose accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and was compared with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI) and fibrosis index based on four factors-4 (FIB-4) score.
Results
The median age of patients was 53.0 years (IQR: 46.0–63.0), and female patients accounted for 95.0 %. Platelets, globulin, total bilirubin, and prothrombin time were associated with advanced fibrosis (≥S3) and used to construct an AIH-PBC overlap syndrome fibrosis (APOSF)-nomogram (available online at https://ndth-zzy.shinyapps.io/APOSF-nomogram/). The AUROCs of APOSF-nomogram were 0.845 (95 % CI: 0.754–0.936) and 0.843 (95 % CI: 0.705–0.982) in development set and validation set respectively, which was significantly better than APRI and FIB-4. Calibration revealed that the estimated risk fits well with biopsy-proven observation. DCA outperformed APRI and FIB4 in terms of net benefit, demonstrating clinical utility.
Conclusion
This novel non-invasive web-based online APOSF-nomogram provided a convenient tool for identifying advanced fibrosis in patients with AIH-PBC overlap syndrome. Further prospective, multicenter studies with large sample size are necessary to validate the applicability of APOSF-nomogram.