Small area estimation of socioeconomic indicators for sampled and unsampled domains

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-11-19 DOI:10.1007/s10182-021-00426-4
Jan Pablo Burgard, Domingo Morales, Anna-Lena Wölwer
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Socioeconomic indicators play a crucial role in monitoring political actions over time and across regions. Income-based indicators such as the median income of sub-populations can provide information on the impact of measures, e.g., on poverty reduction. Regional information is usually published on an aggregated level. Due to small sample sizes, these regional aggregates are often associated with large standard errors or are missing if the region is unsampled or the estimate is simply not published. For example, if the median income of Hispanic or Latino Americans from the American Community Survey is of interest, some county-year combinations are not available. Therefore, a comparison of different counties or time-points is partly not possible. We propose a new predictor based on small area estimation techniques for aggregated data and bivariate modeling. This predictor provides empirical best predictions for the partially unavailable county-year combinations. We provide an analytical approximation to the mean squared error. The theoretical findings are backed up by a large-scale simulation study. Finally, we return to the problem of estimating the county-year estimates for the median income of Hispanic or Latino Americans and externally validate the estimates.

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抽样和未抽样地区社会经济指标的小面积估计
社会经济指标在监测一段时间内和各区域的政治行动方面发挥着至关重要的作用。基于收入的指标,如次级人口的收入中位数,可以提供有关措施影响的信息,例如对减贫的影响。区域信息通常在汇总级别上发布。由于样本量较小,这些区域集合通常与较大的标准误差有关,或者如果该区域未采样或只是没有公布估计值,则这些区域集合就会丢失。例如,如果对美国社区调查中西班牙裔或拉丁裔美国人的收入中位数感兴趣,则某些县年度组合不可用。因此,对不同的县或时间点进行比较在一定程度上是不可能的。我们提出了一种新的基于小面积估计技术的预测器,用于聚合数据和双变量建模。该预测因子为部分不可用的县-年组合提供了经验最佳预测。我们提供了均方误差的解析近似值。这一理论发现得到了大规模模拟研究的支持。最后,我们回到估计西班牙裔或拉丁裔美国人收入中值的县年度估计值的问题,并从外部验证这些估计值。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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