{"title":"Area day-ahead photovoltaic power prediction by just-in-time modeling with meso-scale ensemble prediction system","authors":"Yusuke Mori, Shinji Wakao, Hideaki Ohtake, Takahiro Takamatsu, Takashi Oozeki","doi":"10.1002/eej.23426","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Photovoltaics (PV) output prediction, which is indispensable for power system operation, can affects demand and supply adjustment adversely when large prediction error occurs. Thus, the reduction of large error as well as average error is required in PV power prediction. In 2019, the operation of the Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) of numerical weather prediction started from the JapanMeteorological Agency, and the amount of forecasting information would be potentially useful for the improvement of PV power prediction. However, very few studies on inputting multiple meteorological elements of the MEPS have been reported. In this paper, we newly develop the prediction model for an area day-ahead PV power output composed of Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling) with multiple elements of theMEPS. The developed method achieves precise forecasts with low computational load by both selecting meteorological elements valid for improving prediction accuracy and adequately devising the structure of JIT Modeling. Some numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of the developed method are also presented. In particular, the proposed method reduces large error significantly.</p>","PeriodicalId":50550,"journal":{"name":"Electrical Engineering in Japan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Electrical Engineering in Japan","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eej.23426","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
Photovoltaics (PV) output prediction, which is indispensable for power system operation, can affects demand and supply adjustment adversely when large prediction error occurs. Thus, the reduction of large error as well as average error is required in PV power prediction. In 2019, the operation of the Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) of numerical weather prediction started from the JapanMeteorological Agency, and the amount of forecasting information would be potentially useful for the improvement of PV power prediction. However, very few studies on inputting multiple meteorological elements of the MEPS have been reported. In this paper, we newly develop the prediction model for an area day-ahead PV power output composed of Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling) with multiple elements of theMEPS. The developed method achieves precise forecasts with low computational load by both selecting meteorological elements valid for improving prediction accuracy and adequately devising the structure of JIT Modeling. Some numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of the developed method are also presented. In particular, the proposed method reduces large error significantly.
期刊介绍:
Electrical Engineering in Japan (EEJ) is an official journal of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan (IEEJ). This authoritative journal is a translation of the Transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. It publishes 16 issues a year on original research findings in Electrical Engineering with special focus on the science, technology and applications of electric power, such as power generation, transmission and conversion, electric railways (including magnetic levitation devices), motors, switching, power economics.