Area day-ahead photovoltaic power prediction by just-in-time modeling with meso-scale ensemble prediction system

IF 0.4 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Electrical Engineering in Japan Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI:10.1002/eej.23426
Yusuke Mori, Shinji Wakao, Hideaki Ohtake, Takahiro Takamatsu, Takashi Oozeki
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Photovoltaics (PV) output prediction, which is indispensable for power system operation, can affects demand and supply adjustment adversely when large prediction error occurs. Thus, the reduction of large error as well as average error is required in PV power prediction. In 2019, the operation of the Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) of numerical weather prediction started from the JapanMeteorological Agency, and the amount of forecasting information would be potentially useful for the improvement of PV power prediction. However, very few studies on inputting multiple meteorological elements of the MEPS have been reported. In this paper, we newly develop the prediction model for an area day-ahead PV power output composed of Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling) with multiple elements of theMEPS. The developed method achieves precise forecasts with low computational load by both selecting meteorological elements valid for improving prediction accuracy and adequately devising the structure of JIT Modeling. Some numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of the developed method are also presented. In particular, the proposed method reduces large error significantly.

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基于中尺度集成预测系统的实时建模区域日前光伏发电量预测
光伏输出预测是电力系统运行不可或缺的一部分,当预测误差较大时,会对供需调整产生不利影响。因此,在光伏功率预测中需要减少大误差以及平均误差。2019年,日本气象厅启动了数值天气预测的中尺度集合预测系统(MEPS)的运行,预测信息量将有助于改善光伏发电预测。然而,很少有关于输入MEPS的多个气象要素的研究报告。在本文中,我们新开发了一个区域日前光伏发电量的预测模型,该模型由具有多个MEPS元素的实时建模(JIT建模)组成。所开发的方法通过选择有效的气象元素来提高预测精度,并充分设计JIT建模的结构,实现了低计算量的精确预测。文中还给出了一些数值算例,证明了该方法的有效性。特别地,所提出的方法显著地减少了大的误差。
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来源期刊
Electrical Engineering in Japan
Electrical Engineering in Japan 工程技术-工程:电子与电气
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
51
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Electrical Engineering in Japan (EEJ) is an official journal of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan (IEEJ). This authoritative journal is a translation of the Transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. It publishes 16 issues a year on original research findings in Electrical Engineering with special focus on the science, technology and applications of electric power, such as power generation, transmission and conversion, electric railways (including magnetic levitation devices), motors, switching, power economics.
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Issue Information Development of fatigue prediction system for bogie frame using a dynamic analysis model based on high-speed and high-precision stress estimation method Design and improvement of torque characteristics of half-wave rectified variable field flux motor with axial gap structure Evaluation of a vacuum insulated temperature calibration device to calibrate thermistor characteristics for skin cancer diagnosis Centralized control of large-scale wind farm for system frequency stabilization of the power system
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