Selective Mortality and the Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Natural Disasters

Abstract

We analyze the effects of early-life shocks in the Philippines and find that in utero exposure to severe typhoons is associated with adverse outcomes. We exploit variations in typhoon exposure and sharp increases in short-term disaster relief efforts in the 1960s. Before the increase in disaster relief efforts, in utero exposure to severe typhoons was associated with higher mortality (a 9% reduction in cohort size); survivors exhibited similar levels of human capital as the unaffected. After the increase in disaster relief, the mortality effects were mitigated; however, survivors exhibited lower human capital in the long term. We offer suggestive evidence that the observed changes in adverse long-term effects are due to the relief efforts' effectiveness in increasing survival probability.