Review of the Prospective Prediction of the 2014 Yutian Ms7.3 Earthquake in Xinjiang and Analysis of its Postseismic Trend

Abstract

Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and the associated prediction method developed by us, we have released a medium- and long-term prediction of future strong earthquakes in the Yutian seismic zone of Xinjiang, including the magnitude, location, critical Benioff strain, and focal depth. Comparison shows that these parameters are almost identical with the Yutian Ms7.3 event in Xinjiang on 12 February 2014, which indicates that our previous prediction is credible. Meanwhile, our analysis suggest that the most immediate cause leading to Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake is attributed to the Yutian-Cele ML 6.6 earthquake swarm in 2008.