{"title":"Stochastic cost-effectiveness analysis on population benefits.","authors":"Ermo Chen","doi":"10.1186/s12962-023-00488-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Dealing with randomness is a crucial aspect that cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) tools need to address, but existing stochastic CEA tools have rarely examined risk and return from the perspective of population benefits, concerning the benefits of a group of individuals but not just a typical one. This paper proposes a stochastic CEA tool that supports medical decision-making from the perspective of population benefits of risk and return, the risk-adjusted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The tool has a traditional form of ICER but uses the cost under a risk-adjusted expectation. Theoretically, we prove that the tool can provide medical decisions trimming that promote the risk-return level on population benefits within any intervention structure and can also serve as a criterion for the optimal intervention structure. Numerical simulations within a framework of mean-variance support the conclusions in this paper.</p>","PeriodicalId":47054,"journal":{"name":"Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10605454/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12962-023-00488-y","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Dealing with randomness is a crucial aspect that cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) tools need to address, but existing stochastic CEA tools have rarely examined risk and return from the perspective of population benefits, concerning the benefits of a group of individuals but not just a typical one. This paper proposes a stochastic CEA tool that supports medical decision-making from the perspective of population benefits of risk and return, the risk-adjusted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The tool has a traditional form of ICER but uses the cost under a risk-adjusted expectation. Theoretically, we prove that the tool can provide medical decisions trimming that promote the risk-return level on population benefits within any intervention structure and can also serve as a criterion for the optimal intervention structure. Numerical simulations within a framework of mean-variance support the conclusions in this paper.
期刊介绍:
Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation is an Open Access, peer-reviewed, online journal that considers manuscripts on all aspects of cost-effectiveness analysis, including conceptual or methodological work, economic evaluations, and policy analysis related to resource allocation at a national or international level. Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation is aimed at health economists, health services researchers, and policy-makers with an interest in enhancing the flow and transfer of knowledge relating to efficiency in the health sector. Manuscripts are encouraged from researchers based in low- and middle-income countries, with a view to increasing the international economic evidence base for health.