World population trends: signs of hope, signs of stress.

Abstract

During the 1970s some changes have occurred in the area of population policies and trends. There has been both progress and failure. The growth in world populaton has begun to slow in both developed and developing nations. The apparent decline in the birthrate of China between 1970-1975 is the most rapid of any country on record and may be regarded as family plannings greatest success story. It reveals what a government committed to reducing fertility can accomplish when it deals with the problem on several fronts simultaneously. Another hopeful sign is the decline by 1/3 in the U.S. population growth rate between 1970-1975. Although most of the slowdown in the global population growth stems from declining birthrates in some poor countries population growth is being periodically checked by hunger-induced rises in death rates. The recent upturns in the national death rates represent a reversal of postwar trends. In some situations population growth now acts as a double-edge sword simultaneously contributing to growth in food demand and to reduced food output. It has become clear during the 1970s that land-based food systems can give as did oceanic fisheries under intense pressure. Population growth along with the lesser effect of rising affluence has pushed food consumption ahead of production in recent years and has become a major preoccupation for the entire world. In a world without an adequate system of food reserves increasing world food prices translate into increasing death rates among the poorest people. Crop failure in a rich country has an economic impact but in a poor country it can also have a measurable demographic impact. Attention is specifically focused on population trends 1970-1975; countries that are achieving or approaching stability; the tragic rise of death rates; and the population prospect.