The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Housing Market Cycle

Abstract

This paper examines the spill over effect of economic uncertainty on the duration probability of housing market booms, busts and normal times among 12 OECD countries. Quarterly data from 1985 to 2012 were used. Based on a discrete-time duration (hazard) model, we find that the probability of exiting housing market busts increases with higher economic uncertainty in a statistically significant fashion. Uncertainty, however, is not found to influence the likelihood of leaving booms and normal times. Our results tend to suggest that housing serves as possible hedge against uncertainty.