Using system dynamics to understand long-term impact of new mobility services and sustainable mobility policies: an analysis pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract

Sustainable transport policies are fundamental to adapt transport capacity to existing and future travel demand. In this context, this study aims to develop a System Dynamics (SD), to verify the effects of these policies, focusing on congestion and air pollution. Combined with the SD, the discrete choice utility approach was used to predict the modal share in different policy spaces. In addition, it is carried out a case study in Rio de Janeiro in two realities: pre- and post-pandemic. The results show how mitigation policies can reduce transport externalities (congestion and pollution). The encouragement of high-capacity public transport and car ownership control are the best measures, obtaining high simulation scores. The post-pandemic scenario shows that reducing travel demand is the key to achieving better results. All scores obtained in this scenario are better than in pre-pandemic scenario. Finally, results point out that ride-hailing should be used in a conscious way.