Do China’s Foreign Economic Ties Lead to Influence Abroad? New Evidence from Recent Events

Abstract

Do China’s growing foreign economic ties translate into political influence abroad? We identify issues about which China cares deeply, and assess whether increased economic ties correlate with greater expressed support for Chinese activities on these issues. We collect new data to measure how countries have responded to China’s implementation of a National Security Law for Hong Kong, and recent policies in Xinjiang. We find that countries with closer economic linkages to China were less likely to criticize—and in some cases more likely to support—China’s actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, but the strength and significance of this effect vary considerably depending on the context and type of economic ties. Interestingly, the effects of China’s foreign economic ties are substantively smaller than levels of democracy and development. The findings call into question simple assumptions about the translation of economic ties into political influence, and suggest directions for future study.