An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship

Abstract

. We model the COVID-19 outbreak and shipboard quarantine with a 3-D agent-based simulation of a SEIR model which preserves the ratios of crew, passengers, and shipboard space. The stochastic model captures the movement patterns of passengers and crew members on-board the ship, as well as how this movement changed once quarantine is established. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number based on contact numbers and transmission rates. We capture the number of contacts between two people when they remain within the model equivalent of a 3-foot radius for 60 minutes and the transmission probability per contact. We show that, based on the measured reproduction number, an outbreak is bound to occur in the majority of simulations even with quarantine imposed on the ship. We also show that most infection on board occurs by others of the same group (passenger or crew), with passengers causing the majority of infections.