The purchasing managers' index as a predictor of the economic situation during COVID-19 and its relevance for decision making

Q3 Social Sciences International Journal of Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1504/ijpp.2021.121893

J. Faura

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The economic crisis of the coronavirus differs from all previous ones because of its particularities. There is a simultaneous destruction of demand and supply. It is difficult to know the real impact that the COVID-19 crisis has had on international trade, as it is not usually visible in the short term in most data. However, from indicators such as the purchasing managers' index (PMI) we can get to know the extent of the global slowdown that is taking place. This paper tries to determine the information capacity of the PMI and its importance in previous decision making. To this end, we have analysed the correlation between the PMI and GDP in the European Union, one of the areas that is being most affected by the COVID-19. In addition, some of the possible economic measures by public authorities to reduce the impact of the pandemic are analysed. Copyright © 2021 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

采购经理指数作为新冠疫情期间经济形势的预测指标及其与决策的相关性

新冠肺炎疫情引发的经济危机与以往的经济危机不同，因为它具有特殊性。需求和供给同时遭到破坏。很难知道COVID-19危机对国际贸易的真正影响，因为大多数数据通常无法在短期内看到这种影响。然而，从采购经理人指数(PMI)等指标，我们可以了解正在发生的全球经济放缓的程度。本文试图确定PMI的信息容量及其在前期决策中的重要性。为此，我们分析了受2019冠状病毒病影响最严重的地区之一欧盟PMI与GDP之间的相关性。此外，还分析了公共当局为减少这一流行病的影响可能采取的一些经济措施。版权所有©2021 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

International Journal of Public Policy Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations

CiteScore

0.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IJPP proposes and fosters discussion on public policy issues facing nation states and national and supranational organisations, including governments, and how these diverse groups approach and solve common public policy problems. The emphasis will be on governance, accountability, the creation of wealth and wellbeing, and the implications policy choices have on nation states and their citizens. This perspective acknowledges that public policy choice and execution is complex and has ramifications on the welfare of citizens; and that, despite national differences, the actions of nation states are constrained by policies determined by supranational bodies, some of which are not directly accountable to any international body.